Another American Century

We are raised to think pessimistically since pessimism is often mistaken for critical thinking. For decades, the narrative of a West in slow decline has echoed in intellectual circles. For example, when, during the first waves of the pandemic, the situation in some Western countries seemed catastrophic while the virus was under control in China, this was quickly interpreted as a sign of the weakness of our liberal democratic systems. In the end, however, the West emerged from the pandemic in much better shape than China, which dogmatically maintained a zero-COVID policy with draconian measures, while life in the Western world had long since returned to normal.

A few years ago, it was often said that the West, and the U.S. in particular, was losing its innovative edge. Now, since the release of ChatGPT in November 2022, powered by NVIDIA’s cutting-edge chip designs, the U.S. is once again at the forefront of the next technological revolution. At the same time, however, the disruption caused by generative AI is exposing the West’s next major weakness: its dependence on Taiwanese high-end chip production. Given Taiwan’s new geopolitical importance as the undisputed center of production for chips with single-digit nanometer transistors, China’s increasingly concrete plans for “reunification” with Taiwan are hardly surprising. It is doubtful, however, that either of the two potential future U.S. presidents will fail to understand Taiwan’s strategic importance and abandon the allied island nation. With next-generation war machines like Northrop Grumman’s B-21 Raider, the U.S. has the technology to help the Taiwanese successfully defend their mountainous island in the event of an invasion.

On the other side of the world, the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has been raging since February 2022. While many Western, especially European, observers gave Ukraine little chance against such an attack even shortly before the invasion, the brave Ukrainians have heroically defended their country for over two years now. Since Ukraine received another $61 billion lifeline from the U.S. in late April, after months of delay, there have been reports of Ukrainian successes as Russia wears itself out in grinding offensives. The fact that Putin’s ally Viktor Orban recently proposed a cease-fire in Kiev is certainly no sign of Russian military superiority.

The pessimism mentioned at the beginning is actually vital in democratic systems. In authoritarian states, power must be justified by successes, and pessimism is often synonymous with dangerous criticism of the system. In democratic states, on the other hand, the population must be convinced of the necessity of the efforts to be made by the threat of the most pessimistic scenarios. While Nazi Germany during World War II severely punished and often executed those who doubted the military success of the so-called Third Reich as “Defätisten”, the U.S. public was repeatedly told that it was facing a highly technologized enemy that would be extremely hard to defeat. In reality, Nazi Germany was at all times industrially inferior to the United States. It is often overlooked that the Wehrmacht had few fully motorized units and relied on millions of horses.

Western industry dwarfs Russian industry, and China is at least as dependent on the West as the West is on China. What if the Ukrainians, with Western support, can hold their own and the Russian invasion finally collapses? What if the U.S. so credibly supports Taiwan that China never attempts an invasion and Taiwan remains free? Then we can look forward to another American century in which freedom is preserved from Kiev to Taipei and we all enjoy the fruits of the technological revolution that is just beginning. The pessimist in us tells us not to believe in such scenarios, but let’s just remember that even the last century, with its two world wars, ended with at least a moment of freedom and peace.

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